2018/19 Estimated Brazilian Crop

The USDA has released an updated report that estimates this year’s (Marketing Year 2018/19 July–June) Brazilian coffee crop at 63.4 million 60-kg bags, due to better agricultural and dehusking yields. That’s up 5% from the previous estimate of 60.2 million bags, which was already projected to be the largest harvest on record. However, the USDA maintains its original estimate that the country will only be able to export 35.33 million bags due to limited container availability.

Local farmers are also requesting that the Brazilian government supply funds, so farmers can hold on to their crops longer, to avoid selling at the current low market price.

No official forecast has been announced yet for the Marketing Year 2019/20; however, the USDA expects next year’s crop to be smaller due to off-year production and lower levels of crop management due to lower coffee prices and the high cost of inputs. The depreciation of the Brazilian Real has made crop management more expensive for farmers. The department forecasts that given the thin margins, commercial farmers will likely decrease the application of fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides, negatively affecting next year’s yields.